When a Democrat wins in Alabama, you know the script has been flipped. But there are still a few standard electoral lessons we can learn from the biggest political upset in a generation. And both parties have reasons to celebrate.
D1 – Alabama follows Virginia in signaling a wave
In the final polling average for Alabama, Moore was ahead by 2.5 points. The final vote total saw Jones winning by 1.5 points, or a total swing to Democrats of 4%. That doesn’t mean the polls were “wrong” per se, just that they underestimated Democrat turnout (and Republicans staying home), especially by black voters, who turned out in bigger numbers than even for Obama in 2012. Continue reading